An opportunity for parties

The recent election might just have provided an opportunity for political parties to firm up and take real shape.  What could they do? They could each form shadow cabinets.

The shadow cabinet, similar to the ones in the United Kingdom, would be composed of senior leaders of the non-ruling parties to mirror the cabinet of the incoming government.  Each member of the shadow cabinet would lead on a specific policy area for the party and to question and challenge their counterpart in the cabinet. In this way the official opposition seeks to present itself as an alternative government-in-waiting. [http://bit.ly/260qKBw] 

Here are some reasons to do this now, never mind that elective tenures are currently fixed:


1.  Apparently the incoming government needs a clear vision and policies.  They appear to be reputation-centered; and the Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) would be saddled with not governing, but with keeping numerous balls up in the air, each of which would be a piece of interest of the "members" of the supermajority.

2.  There are critical yet controversial solutions proposed to address various issues. Among them: the restoration of death penalty; emergency powers for the president to attempt to solve the traffic crisis in the metro areas and for other issues; turning the police into likely bounty hunters through kill rewards; arming civilians to help fight "drugsters"; constitutional change; and of course, claims on the West Philippine Sea.

3.  It appears that the conditions for constitutional change could be made more favorable by the incoming administration.  Those conditions would be unlike 1986 when the only viable option was for the then-president Cory Aquino to appoint members of the constitutional convention. This planned one would be different.  Interests and all-boys clubs will likely rule. They will get themselves elected to shape the constitution to their tastes.


The opposition/s, in a dynamic democracy like ours, need/s to chime-in and take away the spotlight from the just-one perspective.  They should offer the already-engaged public with sound alternative solutions and arguments in order to explore or exhausts the issues better (and in the process differentiate themselves from the others).  We all could go to the polls sooner that we expect.

For 2016 a total of 169 parties registered with the Commission on Elections, 46 of which are national.  Not all of them would be capable of putting up a shadow cabinet. But with some consolidation, if necessary, at least the big names, national and regional, could. Easily.

Now more than ever, there could be room for party institutes to be put up to research and take positions on issues and build stronger support bases.  Women party leaders along with their party, or an all-women shadow cabinet composed of CSO members, could inform on the impact of the controversial solutions especially on women and children.  The parties could at the same time look into attracting talent and training young cadres to adapt and spread party positions and principles.

I am not a party person myself but I would like for parties to be fully functioning.  I am an elections person, and I would like to see competitive elections; and if parties offer good and competent candidates, voters will always "win", whichever way they vote. What do you think?

(Second) The true mandate of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

...is to hold competitive elections and create the environment for it.

(First) The true mandate of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC)...

...is to hold competitive elections and create the environment for it.

All data from the Comelec except for gender, which were

determined based on the name. 

There are other measures but at its simplest, competitive elections mean that there is more than one candidate for an elective post. For the elections this May in the National Capital Region (NCR),  955 candidates are vying for 336 elective posts. 

These figures help explain how participative
 are the elections for local positions in the NCR.

This highly urbanized region and home to 6.25 million voters has 17 towns and cities.  It is broken down into 42 districts from which councilors are elected. A town or city has from two to six councilor districts depending on the population.  There are also 30 congressional districts within the NCR.



On voting day on May 9, voters in the NCR will choose one mayor and one vice-mayor, between six and eight councilors, and one member of congress or parliament.

Twenty-seven parties are competing in the NCR.

However, my take on competitiveness revolve around the data from  the table below.  Obviously, questions begged to be asked.

1.  Why are voters not presented with at least one other candidate to choose from?  Why did not parties compete?  Did the voters agree that no other candidate could represent them?

2.  What led candidates and voters to "capture" or game the system?
3.  What local political and electoral conditions could explain this situation?
4.  If at all, how might the cost of becoming a candidate or the cost of getting elected contribute in the explanation?
5.  What might prevent this situation from happening?

I will bring up more points in the upcoming posts, but for now a few future possible remedies:

1.  National parties should explain in writing to the voters, through the Comelec, why they could not field candidates in places where candidates are unopposed.  They should cite in detail the constraints they faced?
2.  In an unopposed situation, the candidate should at least get 50 percent of the valid votes in order to be elected.  If not, a re-election.

What's your take?

A congressman's and a senator's ditty?

“I owe, I owe, so off to work I go.”

That is a bumper sticker, a parody of “Heigh Ho” made famous in Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. What has this got to do with the (Philippine) pork barrel scam? Perhaps this is just the congressmen' and senators' ditty?

In a regional election in the mid-90s, we were told that lenders were ready for anyone who wanted funds. Back then the post for mayor in very rural Mindanao cost as much as 6 million pesos. This would be paid back through the internal revenue allotment (IRA). Monthly tranches, shares to the local government from the national coffers, would first go to the financier until the debt and interest are fully paid. The IRA formed part of the local pork barrel.

The cost of getting elected has gone up since.  It is higher when the rivalry is strong, and even higher in densely populated areas, and when size of the constituency is broader.

Perhaps the biggest expense is on patronage.  These are the monies used to secure support, among which are for buying individual votes or manipulating the results.  In a recent article in the Philippine Star, Rep Lani Mercado Revilla (Cavite 2) elaborated some of the other costs for us. [http://bit.ly/1aEKsc9]

The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism reports that in 2012 among the "33 candidates for senator and the 12 political parties that nominated them, a total of P2.28 billion was spent on the campaign, 90 percent of which went to political advertising on television, radio, newspapers, and online media during the official 90-day campaign period. [http://bit.ly/1aEKsc9]  I believe that patronage dwarfs these costs and are, unfortunately, not well tracked as the advertising expenses.

With the huge amounts advanced on getting elected, there must be a number of recovery mechanisms somewhere, don't you think?

Luneta here we come!

Report on the Conduct of the Random Manual Audit

Below is an excerpt from the full report, which is viewable from this link:  http://bit.ly/YR6XoY

On page 7:

Some Questions for the Comelec and Smartmatic

What could explain these error rates?  What possible underlying root causes might   explain these?  How should the candidates and political parties interpret these discrepancies?  How are the various RMA results consolidated? If a variance of 16.67 percent, similar to the one in this RMA, is noted in the 2013 polls, say in the senatorial position, what would the Comelec and Smartmatic do?

How are checks made on the canvassing process?  How will the public or candidates and parties know if the canvass results are accurate?  How should the audit of the canvassing results look like?

Discrepancy Between AES and RMA

Section 13 of the G.I. BEI states that “In the event of  discrepancy between the AES and RMA results still exceeds the allowable margin of ten (10) votes per  candidate per position (emphasis supplied), the RMA committee shall...”.

What does “allowable margin” mean? What is the basis for the “10 votes per candidate per position”?